The Paroli betting system or Paroli positive progression betting system is one of the many systems people have tried in hopes to “beat the house”. The name of the system might seem like it’s somehow related to a mathematician named Paroli, who invented it, however, that is not the case. Paroli betting system got its name from a Latin word “Par” which means “one that is equal”. What that means we will explain further below as we check what Paroli betting system is, how it’s used, what are its pros and what are the cons.
WHAT IS PAROLI BETTING SYSTEM?
Paroli is a form of positive betting progression, which much like any other betting system has a simple rule, or in this case 2 rules:
– if you lose, bet the same amount
– if you win, double the bet (until you win 3 in a row)
The last part of the rule “until you win 3 in a row” is extremely important to follow. Once you manage to win 3 bets in a row, you return to the starting position and repeat the process.
If you’re familiar with other betting systems, you might have noticed, this system is in a way similar to the Martingale betting system, with the only exception being it’s the complete opposite. If that makes any sense? So instead of doubling the bet amount when you lose, you only double it when you win the bet.
EXAMPLE OF PAROLI SISTEM
Now that we have grasped the concept of the Paroli betting system, we can use it to show how it works in a practical example.
The main goal of using this system is, of course, to win 3 bets in a row while doubling the bet amount with each win. This would mean the last bet would be 4x the initial bet and the total profits would be 6 units.
How do we use the Paroli betting system?
You bet a flat amount on a bet, let’s say $10. If you lose, you repeat the process and bet $10 again. You do so until you win the bet, in which case you take your winnings, double the bet and bet again. In this case, we would have put up a bet of $20. If we lose this bet, we return to betting $10. On the other side, if we manage to win for the 2nd time in a row, we once again double the bet and bet again; in this case, our 3rd bet would be $40.
Again, if we lose this bet, we return to betting with $10, and if we win, we do the same. This is highly important: you continue doubling the bet until you win 3 in a row, after that you return to a single bet and repeat the process.
With plenty of possible outcomes, we will check the table of outcomes for the Paroli betting system, which will visualize how the system works and what is the final result of using it.
|1st Bet||2nd Bet||3rd bet||Result|
|-1 Loss||-1 Loss||-1 Loss||-3|
|-1 Loss||-1 Loss||+1 Win||-1|
|-1 Loss||+1 Win||-2 Loss||-2|
|-1 Loss||+1 Win||+2 Win||+2|
|+1 Win||-2 Loss||-1 Loss||-2|
|+1 Win||-2 Loss||+1 Win||0|
|+1 Win||+2 Win||-4 Loss||-1|
|+1 Win||+2 Win||+4 Win||+7|
What has been talked about prior can be seen in the table. Every time we won a bet, we have doubled it in the next bet and every time we lost a bet, we went back to betting with 1 unit. While the previous example had $10 as a unit, here we simply put 1,2,4 as units.
What’s the logic behind Paroli?
The whole premise of this system is that wins, as well as losses, come in streaks. In other words, the system presumes that if you win, you will win 2 or 3 times and if you lose, you will lose 2 or 3 times in a row. By using this system, we would bet more during our winning streaks and bet the same in our losing streaks, which would, of course, bring us a nice sum of profit. In addition, the Paroli betting system ensures that we never risk more than a single bet on any wager, which is much more forgiving for our bankrolls, unlike other betting systems.
As we saw before, by using the Piroli betting system we can win up to 7 units, that is when we win 3 bets in a row. On the other side, the worst possible outcome is losing 3 bets in a row, when we only lose 3 units. This means that when losses occur, they are not as demanding from our bankroll, which is an undeniable advantage of Paroli. In theory.
However, it all sounds too good to be true. And it is. We failed to take into consideration 2 things; the accumulation of one-unit losses, which can easily exceed the best possible scenario of 7 unit win and the house advantage. If we return to the table of outcomes above, you can see that out of 8 possible outcomes, there are 5 that lose us money and one that results in 0. Furthermore, if we combine all the net results, we end up with a 0. This result means we would benefit from the system if wins and losses would really come in streaks, which we all know is not true.
Positive progression betting systems vs Negative progression betting systems
First, I would like to say I believe a positive progression betting system is far superior to negative progression betting systems, for a simple reason; In a positive progression betting system, we increase our bets only when we win, while in a negative progression betting system we chase our losses and increase our bets every time we lose, which is never a good idea. Those are dangerous systems, which can backfire big time if we get unlucky.
Now that we have established that positive progression betting systems are better compared to negative progression betting systems, let’s answer the question; Is Paroli a system worth using?
When we try to figure out if Paroli will make us money, we need to consider the House edge, which needs to be taken into the account in betting and gambling. I have mentioned the house edge above, however, I have not talked about it until now, as it is a crucial factor that determines the efficiency of the betting system.
If the final result of all probabilities (chart above) is 0 and if we deduct the house edge, the final result is slightly in negative, and that represents the house edge.
The best possible presentation of a house edge can be seen in a roulette game, where we have got black, red and 1 green number. That one green number is the so-called house edge (2.70%) that tilts the chances of winning to the casino or the “house” favour. In sports betting the edge is already calculated in the odds offered.
Now that we know that, we can answer the question.
Paroli betting system will not give you any edge over the house due to 1 flaw it has. Paroli suggests all wins and losses come in streaks, which we know is not the case, and that is where the whole system falls apart. While it’s not really a system that will lose you money, it surely won’t make you money either. It’s basically a system that has no effect on the result in long term. If you want to try it out, go for it, if not, stick to a normal flat betting and hope you are lucky that day. Either way, it will be the luck of the draw that will decide if you’re walking away rich or with a hole in your wallet.